Welcome to our first fertilizer analysis of this crop year.
Outside of a few individual conversations, we have not been public about our fertilizer analysis.
Before committing to public analysis, I wanted to observe the low liquidity of the fertilizer futures contracts.
My thesis is playing out as despite the futures contract's low volume, they accurately lead the retail prices.
The retail prices appear to lag behind futures price movements giving opportunities to those making purchases.
We have been bearish fertilizer since September.
Unfortunately, our bearish fertilizer thesis was limited to verbal and text conversations with readers.
We are confident with our low-volume fertilizer futures contract analysis and will provide proactive content going forward.
UREA (GRANULAR) FOB GULF FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)
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