It is the time of year when producers decide whether to reduce new crop risk with delivery contracts or speculate that fall prices will be higher than offered today.
The Saskatchewan red lentil grower bids coming across my desk are considerably off the early harvest highs, ranging from $0.38/lb to $0.40/lb.
Readers who acted on our sell signal trigger below $43/cwt or $0.43/lb are feeling good about that decision gaining them $2.10/bu or $2100 per 1000 bushels.
We see new crop Red Lentil contracts ranging from $0.28/lb to $0.31/lb.
As humans, we battle Recency Bias, anchoring our price expectations to the recent or past highs contributing to the battle between logic and emotion.
This analysis will compare the current new crop contracts to historical prices to assist in our risk management decisions.
We track our analysis with this link, Red Lentil Analysis.
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Let’s look at some charts.
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